House Republicans are able to reach the 218 seats they need to flip the chamber after the. On Saturday night, CBS News estimates Republicans will win at least 214 seats, while Democrats are expected to win at least 210 seats.
In several outstanding races, Republicans are leading. However, some draws have broken out for Democrats, and on Saturday night CBS News forecast Democrats to flip Washington state’s 3rd congressional district, a seat the GOP was preferred to hold.
There are currently 11 races that have not been called, and 10 of those seats are considered “battlegrounds”. Of those who remained in the battleground districts, five were classified as “toss ups”, two were in the “likely Democratic” category, one was “Democrat-leaning”, and two were “Republican-leaning”.
Democratic strategists working on House races this cycle say it would take a “miracle,” but Democrats have a possible path to hold on to a majority.
They should then win at least 8 of the remaining 11 seats.
In nine of California’s uncalled and competitive races (3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th, and 49th California), three were “Republican”.
For Republicans, California could help them achieve a majority – if their candidates maintain their lead.
Mitchell said that for Democrats to have any chance of holding the House, they would have to win in 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the incumbent Republican is leading.
“If the Democrats won those three races in California, then think the odds go up that the Democrats can hold the House. But if the Democrats lose one of those three, the odds go down, they lose two of those three, the door closes,” Mitchell said.
Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group that works with more moderate House Republicans, said she was confident Republicans Valadao and Calvert would keep their seats.
Republicans also lead in another close race: Colorado’s 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leads with about 1,100 votes with 99% of the results.
Democratic incumbents were expected to win three seats in Nevada. Maine’s 2nd District and Alaska’s At-Large District, two pick-vote seats, leaned toward the Democrats.
“Based on the calculations we made – I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House]”, Chamberlain said. “But it’s going to be very close. There will only be a few places. And it shouldn’t be, I mean, it should have been a landslide, frankly.”
In the primaries, Chamberlain’s group backed Republican candidates like Representatives Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Beutler, House Republicans targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that more right-wing candidates who beat their traditional Republican picks would have been more competitive in the general election.
She said the issue of candidate quality, as well as the disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was one reason House control remained so tight.
“I don’t think Trump is going away,” Chamberlain said. “We just have to make better decisions with Trump. I think some of Trump’s candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And that’s why we have to work together as a party and move forward.”
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