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The good news is I went 10-3 last week. The bad news is that the MDS went 11-2.
We disagreed on one game. Thanks to the Raiders implosion (again), MDS got it right.
For the season, I’m now 87-49-1. The MDS is 77-58-1.
This week we disagree on two games. For all week ten picks, scroll down.
Falcons (-3) at Panthers
MDS point of view: Steve Wilks has done a solid job to ensure his team does not leave the season after the dismissal of Matt Rhule and the trade of Christian McCaffrey. But as we saw last week against the Bengals, this Panthers team just isn’t good enough. The Falcons are expected to win what will likely be another pretty boring Thursday night game.
The choice of MDS: Falcons 23, Panthers 13.
Florio’s opinion: Only 11 days after having an epic battle in Atlanta, these teams seem to be moving in very different directions.
Florio’s choice: Falcons 27, Panthers 20.
Seahawks (+3) vs. Buccaneers
MDS point of view: German fans are treated to an intriguing match between two NFC division leaders. Geno Smith has played well this season, but the Bucs defense should be able to match him well.
The choice of MDS: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 13.
Florio’s opinion: It will be a Super Bowl atmosphere in Munich, and Tom Brady knows something about thriving in that setting.
Florio’s choice: Buccaneers 22, Seahawks 17.
Vikings (+3.5) at Bills
MDS point of view: Josh Allen’s elbow status may make me regret the pick, but right now I don’t see the Vikings playing a competitive game against a Bills team that will be eager to bounce back from last week’s loss.
The choice of MDS: Bills 31, Vikings 17.
Florio’s opinion: This pick is based on an educated guess that Josh Allen won’t play and the belief that Minnesota’s offense is finding its stride, thanks to the TJ Hockenson trade.
Florio’s choice: Vikings 24, Bills 20.
Lions (+3) at Bears
MDS point of view: The Bears offense has improved a lot since the coaching staff finally did what Bears fans were begging for and let Justin Fields play with his legs. They will have another good attacking game against a poor Lions defense.
The choice of MDS: Bears 30, Lions 20.
Florio’s opinion: The Bears have embraced the things Justin Fields does best, and that could help Chicago chase the final NFC playoff spot.
Florio’s choice: Bears 27, Lions 17.
Broncos (+3) at Titans
MDS point of view: Give Titans coach Mike Vrabel lots of credit for playing his team well despite the absence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Vrabel will edge out Nathaniel Hackett and the Titans will win.
The choice of MDS: Titans 27, Broncos 20.
Florio’s opinion: The Titans are simply in a different class than the Broncos.
Florio’s choice: Titans 24, Broncos 14.
Jaguars (+9.5) at Chiefs
MDS point of view: The Jaguars have a knack for keeping games close, and I think they’ll do it again before they fail Kansas City.
The choice of MDS: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21.
Florio’s review: After a slow performance against the Titans, the Chiefs will be ready to deliver an easy knockout to an overmatched opponent.
Florio’s choice: Chiefs 35, Jaguars 17.
Browns (+3.5) at Dolphins
MDS point of view: The Dolphins’ fast receivers will prove too much for the Browns secondary in a high-scoring game.
The choice of MDS: Dolphins 35, Browns 28.
Florio’s opinion: The team that wanted to trade for Deshaun Watson last year faces the team that did. Without Watson on the pitch, for now.
Florio’s choice: Dolphins 31, Browns 24.
Texans (+5) at Giants
MDS point of view: The Texans may be the worst team in the league, and the Giants will beat them hands down.
The choice of MDS: Giants 27, Texans 16.
Florio’s opinion: The Giants have had two weeks to prepare for this one. They shouldn’t need two days.
Florio’s choice: Giants 24, Texans 14.
Saints (-2.5) at Steelers
MDS point of view: Andy Dalton hasn’t been good this year, but Kenny Pickett has been worse, and the Steelers are going to have a tough season as they work through the growing pains of their rookie quarterback.
The choice of MDS: Saints 27, Steelers 14.
Florio’s opinion: Small week and trip for the Saints. Bye week and home game for the Steelers. Add a touch of desperation and advantage, Pittsburgh.
Florio’s choice: Steelers 20, Saints 17.
Colts (+6) at Raiders
MDS point of view: Given the turmoil surrounding the Colts this week – and given how terrible they looked last week – I find it hard to see them playing competitively with anyone. Jim Irsay would love to see Jeff Saturday beat Josh McDaniels, but that’s not going to happen.
The choice of MDS: Raiders 27, Colts 12.
Florio’s opinion: If Josh McDaniels loses this one, he and Frank Reich will be able to watch games together for the rest of the season.
Florio’s choice: Raiders 24, Colts 13.
Cowboys (-5) at Packers
MDS point of view: Aaron Rodgers just isn’t playing well, and I don’t see much reason to think he’s going to turn the tide in the second half of the season.
The choice of MDS: Cowboys 28, Packers 20.
Florio’s opinion: Mike McCarty takes his revenge against a team that revolves around the drain.
Florio’s choice: Cowboys 31, Packers 17.
Cardinals (+3) at Rams
MDS point of view: Both of these teams are desperate to catch up with the Seahawks in the NFC West, which wasn’t the way things were supposed to go this season. I don’t like the Rams’ or Cardinals’ chances of making the playoffs, but I think the Rams are a little closer to a turnaround.
The choice of MDS: Rams 20, Cardinals 14.
Florio’s review: With or without Matthew Stafford, the Rams are desperate enough to find a way to win this one.
Florio’s choice: Rams 26, Cardinals 20.
Chargers (+7) at 49ers
MDS point of view: It should be a close and exciting game, and I see Jimmy Garoppolo making a big late pitch to make the difference.
The choice of MDS: 49ers 28, Chargers 24.
Florio’s review: The 49ers are preparing to move.
Florio’s choice: 49ers 34, Chargers 21.
Commanders (+11) at Eagles
MDS point of view: The Commanders have played well since Taylor Heinicke took over as starting quarterback, but they won’t play well enough to give the Eagles much play.
The choice of MDS: Eagles 31, Commanders 13.
Florio’s review: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman better be prepared to fill a lot of garbage time.
Florio’s choice: Eagles 35, Commanders 10.
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