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Monday Night Football Picks Prediction: Commanders vs Eagles Preview

Commanders vs Eagles Odds

The Eagles took a 24-0 first-half lead in Washington in Week 3 and held on to win 24-8, easily covering the -5.5 gap despite not having scored just one point in the second half. That lackluster second half also helped the under (47.5) win without breaking a sweat. Should we expect a similar result this time around?

Analysis of matches between commanders and eagles

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between Commanders and Eagles:

Commanders vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA 20 3
Pass DVOA 29 2
cutting-edge DVOA 27 27
Overall DVOA 4 14
Pass DVOA 3 25
cutting-edge DVOA 5 2

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are second in points per game (28.1) and fourth in DVOA, but Washington is one of the toughest defenses they’ll face.

In the first meeting between these teams, the commanders held the Eagles to a season-low 72 yards rushing. Hurts was limited to his lowest yards-per-carry average (2.22) and second-lowest rushing total (20 yards) in a game this season.

Despite connecting on passes for 45, 44 and 31 yards to DeVonta Smith, plus a 40-yarder to Grant Calcaterra, the Eagles managed to hang just 24 points on the scoreboard. They were forced to throw a season-high six times and were held scoreless on eight of their 12 drives (excluding final possession when they ran out of time).

Ron Rivera’s defense is second against the run and third in pressure ratio (26.6%, according to Pro Football Reference). It’s a recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that averages the second-most rushing attempts per game (34.5) and sees Hurts’ passer rating go from 119.6 in a clean pocket to 76.7 under pressure. Washington’s pass defense has improved since cornerback William Jackson III (who has since been traded) was benched in Week 5.

According to RBsDM.com, the Washington defense is sixth in pass completion rate (42.5%) and ninth in expected setbacks added per play (-0.037) since Week 5. It was 17th in pass completion rate. pass success (45.1%) and 27th in EPA dropback per play (.199) in weeks 1-4.


Bet Washington vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel
Commanders +10.5 | Eagles -10.5


When the Commanders have the ball, they will face a top-three Eagles defense that held them scoreless for the first 58 minutes and five seconds of the first encounter.

Washington was Carson Wentz’s quarterback in that one, but it’s not like Taylor Heinicke is a better fit. The Eagles are eighth in pressure rating and Heinicke’s passer rating under pressure (36.6) ranks 38th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks, per PFF. Eagles’ yardage coverage ninth-highest in the league and Washington is 27th in yards per target against man coverage (6.7) since Heinicke took over in Week 7 (they are sixth against the man’s cover over the same period).

Heinicke loves to give the ball to Terry McLaurin, who shot 28.4% of his targets and accounted for 38.5% of his passing distance, but the Eagles are second in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders. McLaurin has beaten some big name corners lately, but it’s still a tough match against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who rank fourth and 14th respectively in the PFF coverage category out of 114 qualified corners. With those cleats on the outside, the Eagles allowed the lowest explosive passing rate of 16 or more yards (8.5%)

The Eagles are vulnerable on the ground, but the rushing attack from the 27th rank commanders is not guaranteed to be able to exploit them. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. were disappointing on the field, combining for just 3.51 yards per carry on 156 carries.

Washington’s leading offensive average in this game is Curtis Samuel, who carried 18 times for 122 yards (6.22 ypc). Samuel also thinks he’s seeing a high percentage of looks from the slot with the Eagles missing starting nickel corner Avonte Maddox (hamstring).

Whether the commanders are able to run or not, they will try to shorten the game as best they can. According to Football Outsiders, they rank 31st in neutral pace (33.45 seconds) and 24th in average seconds between games in the first half (29.50).

Both defenses mesh well with the opposing attacks here, giving this game all the makings of a gritty, low-scoring NFC East game.

According to our Action Labs data, the outdoor subdivisions are 57-34 (63%) since the start of last season.

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