Mid-terms generally do not favor the incumbent party
Fog hangs around the United States Capitol building on November 4, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Samuel Corum | Getty Images
Although President Joe Biden has asked voters to view the upcoming election as a “choice” rather than a “referendum”, the midterms have always been a referendum on which party is in power.
This is not a good sign for the Democrats who control the presidency and both houses of Congress. Former President George W. Bush was the exception to the trend. Political analysts attribute the GOP’s gain in the House to the rallying effect after the 9/11 attacks.
Here’s how recent parties of presidents fared in the U.S. House in midterm races held during their first terms:
- Bill Clinton: Democrats lost 54 seats
- Bush: Republicans win 8 seats
- Barack Obama: Democrats lost 63 seats
- Donald Trump: Republicans lost 41 seats
Biden’s approval rating at 44%, voters slightly prefer Democrats controlling Congress in NBC poll
US President Joe Biden speaks on the economy at ViaSat, an American technology company, in Carlsbad, California on November 4, 2022
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Biden’s approval rating stands at 44% ahead of Election Day, according to a poll released Sunday by NBC News.
That puts him in the same position as former presidents Donald Trump (46%) and Barack Obama (45%) in the latest NBC News/WSJ poll conducted ahead of the midterm elections.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points among likely voters, found 48% preferred Democrats to control Congress and 47% preferred Republicans. This is the reverse of October, when 48% of likely voters favored Republicans and 47% Democrats in the NBC News poll. Both are within the margin of error.
Polling places are open to voters in the Midwest and mountainous regions of the country
A voter drops their ballot into a drop box at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on November 7, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Voters in the center of the country began heading to the polls at 7 a.m. ET in Missouri and lined up to vote starting at 8 a.m. ET in Arizona, both at 6 a.m. local time.
The races between Democratic senatorial candidate Trudy Busch Valentine and Republican rival Eric Schmitt in Missouri and incumbent Democratic senator Mark Kelly and Republican senatorial candidate Blake Masters in Arizona are important to watch in those states.
Polls also open at 8 a.m. ET in Wisconsin (7 a.m. local time) where Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is running against Democratic nominee and Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.
Voters choose between Republican incumbent Mike Lee or independent Evan McMullin for the U.S. Senate in Utah, beginning at 9 a.m. ET (7 a.m. local time).
Trump suggests he will announce presidential race on November 15
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Dayton International Airport November 7, 2022 in Vandalia, Ohio.
Drew Anger | Getty Images
Former President Donald Trump said Monday night he would make a “big announcement” on Nov. 15 at his resort town of Mar-a-Lago, where he is set to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign.
“I’m going to make a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,” Trump said at a Save America rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on the eve of the midterm elections. .
Trump is eager to relaunch his third run for the presidency, and conversations about staffing have intensified significantly in recent weeks. A first list of the main potential collaborators has already been released.
Trump’s line on Nov. 15 came near the end of a more than 90-minute speech for GOP nominee JD Vance in Ohio. Instead of focusing on Vance, the former president railed against Democrats, judges who ruled unfavorably in cases against his family, laid waste to US airports and most importantly, President Joe Biden.
A spokesperson for Trump did not respond to a request from CNBC to confirm that his Nov. 15 event will be a campaign launch.
As Trump nears the official launch of the 2024 presidential race, polls show he has unprecedented support among Republican voters.
Trump would also enter the race with more than $60 million in cash held by his leadership PAC, Save America, and a prodigious dollar fundraising operation that sucks up online donations from the Republican base.
Polling stations are open to voters along the East Coast
A man arrives to vote during early voting for the midterm elections at the Smyrna Community Center in Smyrna, Georgia on November 4, 2022.
carlos barria | Reuters
Voters can head to the polls as early as 6 a.m. ET in Virginia and as early as 6 a.m. ET in New Hampshire, with North Carolina and Ohio following closely at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Polls open at 7 a.m. ET for voters in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The big races to watch in those states are the showdown between incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Democratic Representative Val Demings in Florida for the US Senate. Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock is also running against controversial top Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia, and Democratic incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer faces Republican Tudor Dixon for governor of Michigan.
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