Dolphins vs Bengals predictions: Odds, total, player props, picks, how to watch ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins will kick off the NFL’s fourth week when these two AFC clubs face off on “Thursday Night Football.”

If you had told someone over the summer that a team would be undefeated before this game, most people would probably have pointed to the Bengals as having the perfect record, right? After all, they were only in the Super Bowl and boast a budding superstar in Joe Burrow. Well, the NFL has a funny way of turning the game around, as it’s Miami that’s undefeated heading into Week 4 and coming off an impressive win over Buffalo. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is trying to turn things around from an 0-2 start and come back to .500 after beating the Jets in Week 3.

Here we will look specifically at the different betting angles this game has to offer. In addition to the spread and total, we’ll also be looking at several player props and handing in our picks for how we see this matchup playing out.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Thursday September 29 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bengals -3.5, O/U 47.5

line movement

This line mimics a Ferris wheel. In the spring when the schedules were released, the Bengals were the four-point favorites. Looking ahead to Week 3, however, Miami’s early season surge pushed that number down to -1.5 for the Bengals. After the Bengals had a perfect game against New York and Tua Tagovailoa suffered a back and shoulder injury last week, the line shifted back in favor of the Bengals, who were again four-point favorites. But now Tagovailoa is supposed to playso the line is now Bengals -3.5.

The choice: Dolphins +3.5. In most cases, this is the ideal place for dolphins. Their quarterback is banged up and they’re coming off an unlikely victory over the team that’s favored to win their division in the Buffalo Bills. Not only that, but the Bengals finally entered the win column against New York last week. However, I’m not entirely convinced that Cincinnati has turned the tide. The Jets turned the ball over four times last week and the Bengals scored 13 points on those runs. I don’t expect the Dolphins to give the ball to the opposition that much, and as long as the ball falls into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they can rack up a ton of YAC to move the chains. The Bengals also rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play (4.5), while Miami is tied for the second-highest yards per play mark in the league with Philadelphia.

Key trend: The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight win.

Upper/lower total

Miami’s early-season breakout moved that total up from where it was in the spring. Initially, this head-to-head total was 44, but opened up to 48.5 before Week 3. Tua Tagovailoa’s previously questionable status may be why this total started to drop. a little. With him now expected to play, it will be interesting to see if that number increases.

The choice: Over 47.5. Just a slight tilt here. Miami’s offense has shown it can explode at any time, but Tagovailoa is getting a little knocked off its potential. Meanwhile, the Bengals arguably have a collection of the top five skill position players, but they haven’t played at their peak yet. Both of these teams are in the NFL’s top 10 in points per game, with the Dolphins averaging 27.7 per game and the Bengals averaging 21.3. If they’re just playing their averages, here we go.

Key trend: Over bets are 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 games after a Bengals outright win by more than 14 points.

Accessories Tua Tagovailoa

• Passing yards: 256.5 (over -111, under -123)

Tagovailoa’s health condition has significantly reduced his accessory market at the time of writing. He’s exceeded that number in two of his three games this season. The only exception came last week when he was in and out of the game due to a possible concussion. If he plays a full game – and certainly checks his status before placing that bet – he should be able to hit that target. The Dolphins QB is the best quarterback this secondary has faced this season, and he’s giving up 9.9 yards per carrying over three weeks.

Accessories by Joe Burrow

• Touchdowns: 1.5 (more than -174, less than +126)
• Passing yards: 275.5 (over -117, under -117)
• Ground course: 11.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Overtaking attempts: 35.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
• Completion of the longest pass: 37.5 (over -113, under -121)
• Achievements: 24.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
• Interception: 0.5 (more than +104, less than -142)

It makes it look like it could be a home-and-away game between these two teams, which should force Burrow to back down and pass a heap. He has surpassed that total in each of his three games this season. Additionally, Burrow has attempted 35 or fewer passes in 12 of his career games (41.3%). The Dolphins are also giving up 297.7 passing yards per game this season, the second most in the NFL. With that in mind, Over on Burrow’s pass attempts and passing yards deserve special attention.

Player accessories to consider

Tyreek Hill’s total receiving yards: over 70.5 (-123). It was a weird weekend for Hill in Week 3 as he only saw four targets and had two assists. I consider that to be the outlier and expect his goal share to be similar to what we saw in the first two weeks when he averaged 12.5 goals per game. If he sees that workload, continues to catch about 72.4 percent of those targets, and stays around his 15.1 yards per reception average, he’ll fly over that number.

Joe Mixon’s total receiving yards: over 21.5 (-127). Mixon is averaging 6.6 targets per game this season and faces a Dolphins defense that just gave up 143 receiving yards to running backs last week.