On Friday, nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its Senate control forecast to Republicans just four days before the midterm elections.
Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors’ editor of the Cook Political Report, said in her analysis that Cook is moving her forecast away from the Democratic race because the domestic environment has recently been seen as more Republican-friendly and issues like The economy and inflation resonate more with voters now than abortion.
Taylor noted that Democrats could still see a scenario in which they maintain their slim 50-50 majority in the Senate, but she said it was possible Republicans could win up to three seats in the election.
Among the races where she thought Republicans had an advantage or where Democrats seemed to be capping support were Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She said that in Pennsylvania there were lingering questions about the health of Democratic candidate John Fetterman – Fetterman suffered a stroke in May – after a heated debate last week and said some Republican-leaning voters who might have been skeptical of Mehmet Oz (R) appear to be solidifying their support.
In Wisconsin, where Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) takes on Sen. Ron Johnson (R), Taylor said Cook was changing the race from “throwing” to “lean Republican” because “the national climate gives the incumbent the least of the edges, while Republicans bludgeoned Barnes on crime.Many National Democratic strategists we spoke to while watching this race closely admit that these attacks have worked and are not optimistic given the deterioration of the political environment.
And in Nevada, Taylor said that while Adam Laxalt was viewed more as a generic Republican against Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), public polls seemed to suggest Cortez Masto had a 46% cap.
In Georgia, Taylor wrote that GOP hopeful Herschel Walker could be favored to win if the Senate race ends in a runoff — required by state law if no candidate receives more than 50% votes – and the majority in the upper house hangs in the balance, although she said that if the race ends in a runoff and there is a clearer picture of who holds the majority, it could be harder for Walker to unseat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).
“However, we also now see a scenario where – pushed by potential large margins from Governor Brian Kemp in his rematch with Stacey Abrams – Walker could win outright if it’s a bumper night for Republicans,” she said. note.
The ratings change comes as Republicans race to what they hope will be a good night on Tuesday, hoping to retake the Senate as the national climate showed the economy and inflation are at the heart of the concerns of many voters.
Still, Democrats think they have an advantage given that many of their candidates vote within the margin of error against their Republican opponents and haven’t been dogged by some of the same negative headlines that have bothered GOP candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona and Walker in Georgia.
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