Bengals vs Dolphins odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions by compound model

The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals will square off on Thursday Night Football in a matchup between two of the AFC’s most talented teams. The Dolphins (3-0) are coming off a stunning 21-19 win over the defending AFC East champions Buffalo Bills last Sunday. The Bengals (1-2), who lost 23-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in last year’s Super Bowl, are coming off a 27-12 win over the New York Jets after two tight early losses of the season. Miami leads the all-time series 17-7 and is hoping to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa available for the game after leaving Sunday’s game with the Bills with a sore ankle and back.

Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Bengals vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under for total runs scored is 48.5. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and SportsLine projection model betting tips.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has grown nearly $7,000 for players to $100 on top NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on NFL’s top picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on NFL direct picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that time. Anyone who followed him is upstairs.

Now the model has set its sights on the Dolphins vs Bengals and has just locked in its TNF picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model choices. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for the Dolphins vs. the Bengals:

• Difference between Bengals and Dolphins: Cincinnati -3.5
• Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under: 48.5 points
• Money line Bengals vs Dolphins: Dolphins +162, Bengals -195
• MIA: Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in last four September games
• CIN: Bengals have covered seven straight games against teams with winning records
• Bengals vs. Dolphins picks: See the picks here

Why the Bengals can cover

Quarterback Joe Burrow will face the Dolphins for the first time in his career. In two career games against AFC East foes, Burrow has been steady, completing 44 of 70 passes (62.9%) for 534 yards, six touchdowns and one interception for a 108.9 rating. After two lackluster efforts in the first two weeks, Burrow was sharp in Sunday’s win over the New York Jets. He completed 23 of 36 passes (63.9%) for 275 yards and three scores for a rating of 114.9.

Defensively, wing Trey Hendrickson will be looking for his second straight big game. Against the Jets, he recorded his first 2.5 sacks of the season and forced two fumbles, a career high. He has nine tackles on the year, six of them solo, with one tackle for loss. In 64 games over six seasons with the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals, Hendrickson has 108 tackles, including 74 solo, with 36.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles and three pass breakups.

Why dolphins can cover

Provided Tua Tagovailoa can get going, Miami’s passing game looks terrific. Tagovailoa is second in the league in passing yards with 925 and is tied for third with eight touchdowns. He’ll be looking for a completion percentage over 70 and a passer rating of 120 or higher for the third straight start. In his last outing against Cincinnati, he threw for 296 yards and a score.

Miami has a double at wide receiver with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Waddle ranks second in the league with 342 receiving yards, while Hill is third with 317. Against the Bills in Week 3, Waddle caught four passes and recorded his third career game with at least 100 receiving yards . In 19 games to start his career, he has 123 receptions, the second most by a player in his first 20 career games in NFL history. Hill had success against Cincinnati. In the 2021 AFC Championship Game as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, he had seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. In seven career games on Thursday Night Football, Hill has one touchdown reception in six games.

How to Make Choices Between Dolphins and Bengals

SportsLine’s model leans under the point total, calling for 48 points. It also generated a pick against the spread which cashes in over 50% of the simulations. You can only get the model’s TNF picks from SportsLine.

So who wins the Dolphins against the Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread takes more than 50% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread, all from the forward model that has risen nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out out.