And if both parties split the “Toss Up” races evenly, the Republicans would still win a one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats are banking on the power of the incumbent and the continued unpopularity of some Republican candidates to weather an increasingly difficult political environment for the ruling party.
New Hampshire is one of three Senate races changing in our latest ratings update, in addition to four governor races and 13 House races — with nearly all of the changes going in the Republican leadership. The political environment in the final days of the race continues to shift toward the GOP.
Here are the three main takeaways from the latest ratings update:
New Hampshire firmly in play, Washington state on board
In addition to moving New Hampshire to “Toss Up,” two other races are moving in the Republican direction: Sen. Marco Rubio has nearly cemented his lead in Florida, and his race is moving from “skinny Republican” to “probable Republican,” despite the well-funded challenge he faces from the Democratic representative. Val Demings.
And the Senate race in Washington State has become more competitive. Democratic senator. Patty Murray is still the favorite, but Republican Tiffany Smiley – who is outspending Murray in the final month of the race – has gained ground. The race changes from “Probably Democratic” to “Lean Democratic”.
Although polls have tightened in Washington, Smiley is still bothered by the state’s partisan leanings. During the August primary, Murray (52%) and the Democratic candidates together obtained more than 55% of the votes. The political environment is improving for Republicans now, but it’s a steep hill to climb.
In moving to “Toss Up,” New Hampshire joins five other states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Still, not all of them are pure coin flips. Hassan’s slight advantage in his race is similar to GOP Sen. Ron Johnsonmodest advantage in Wisconsin. Numerous public inquiries this week have shown that Johnson is still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes, albeit by threadbare margins.
Like Arizona, which went “Toss Up” last week, the tightening in New Hampshire came despite the withdrawal of some National Republican groups from the state.
But while the GOP super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, was absent, other ideological groups filled the void, like Our American Century, funded by Steve Wynn ($2.9 million in ads) and Sentinel Action Fund. ($1 million), which is a partner organization of Heritage Action, an advocacy organization affiliated with the Heritage Foundation.
New York Governor Switches to Lean Democratic
New York Governor Kathy Hochul is still the favorite to win a full term in her race, but the Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin mounts a furious charge in the final weeks of the race. New York, which sits in the “Likely Democratic” since the launch of the electoral forecasts, goes up a notch, to the “Lean Democratic”.
Zeldin’s focus on crime has proven powerful – polls show more voters rank it as their most important issue than any other issue – but he still presents himself as an ally of former President Donald Trump and an opponent of abortion rights in New York State.
Still, the tighter-than-expected race at the top of the ticket causes wave for the New York Democrats’ downvote. Three of the 12 House races heading to Republicans are in New York.
The other three races of governors moving to Republicans are in states Democrats had hoped to contest earlier in the cycle but where GOP incumbents have dominant leads: New Hampshire, Ohio and Vermont each pass from “probable Republican” to “solid Republican”.
GOP closes in on House majority
Republicans are now favored in 215 House districts – just 3 short of a majority.
Two Previously Ranked ‘Toss Up’ Contests Are Now ‘Lean Republican’: A Newly Drawn Open Seat in Colorado and Democratic representing Cindy Axneis racing in Iowa. Much of the polling in Axne District shows a tie race — including a publicly released internal poll from Republican Zach Nunn’s campaign — but undecided voters are expected to split against the incumbent.
Meanwhile, four races previously rated “Lean Democratic” are now in the “Toss Up” category: the seats belonging to the representatives. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as well as an open seat in Western Long Island belonging to the incumbent representative. Kathleen Rice (DN.Y.).
The Republicans made a late game for the Maloney seat. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC, said it has spent $8.8 million — mostly in the past three weeks — to oust the president from the House Democrats’ campaign arm this year.
Unlike other districts that have seen last-minute spending, Maloney’s seat is a “Toss Up” — neither he nor Republican Mike Lawler is a significant frontrunner.
In other seats that change in this update, late spending has made them more competitive, but Democrats retain an edge.
Representatives. Julia Brownley (D-California), Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Joe Morel (DN.Y.) all went from “Probably Democrat” to “Lean Democrat,” as did an open seat in Pittsburgh, where Democratic nominee Summer Lee faces both a deluge of late spending by the new super PAC of AIPAC and a potentially confusing situation. on the ballot. His GOP opponent, Mike Doyle, shares the same name as the incumbent Democratic congressman from the district.
One race has shifted to Democrats: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot is now the underdog for re-election in his Cincinnati-based district. This race goes from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic”.
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